jorowi wrote:I don't think ST:Discovery will last very long. It's going on CBS' own streaming service which will dramatically reduce its viewers. Additionally, the first season usually isn't very good. The cast hasn't gelled and acting can be a bit stiff. In the cut-throat TV environment we have today that spells disaster.
At the risk of being contrary, I'm gonna predict the opposite, John.
1) CBS All Access.
I get it. People don't want to have to pay for yet another streaming service. They probably already have one or two. I faced this myself last year. Netflix (Australia) didn't have the rights to Star Trek. I did a little research and found that a competing service (Stan) had the Aussie streaming rights. Although I was already paying for Netflix, and nobody hates parting with money more than me, I decided to take on Stan as a second streaming service so I could watch the backlist of Star Trek. Keep in mind, this is just for the old shows, which I saw decades ago, and much of which I own on VHS (even though I don't have a VHS played plugged into my TV any longer). (ironically, not long after, the rights shifted to Netflix)
Now, for the chance to watch brand new Star Trek? As a fan, that's a no brainer. Despite a vocal sub-section who say they'll refuse to pay for CBS All Access, I believe most people who have an interest in Trek will take the plunge. As somebody who spent $40 per month to buy the VHS tapes as soon as they came out, paying for just a one-month subscription to bringe the series seems a small price to pay. CBS are viewing this as a premium show, which people will be willing to pay to watch.
I don't deny that having it on the streaming service will limit the casual viewers somewhat. The trick will be for them to hook viewers powerfully with the pilot, which will be free-to-air on CBS. If the quality of the show is what I think it'll be, then I believe they can pull it off. I suspect that as fans start talking about the show and buzz builds, even some of the detractors will give in and give All Access a go.
Netflix clearly has a lot of confidence in this show. They contributed big dollars to secure the international rights. They don't do such things lightly.
2) Traditionally speaking, the first season of Star Trek shows have been weak in the past. That's true. This was especially true of TNG and DS9. As you have said, TV has changed a lot in the intervening years. the people behind Discovery seem to understand this. They are developing a show using modern sensibilities. Strong serialised format. Strong character-based writing. If a show like Falling Skies can get it right from the first season, then I don't see why Star Trek Discovery can't do the same. The cast themselves already seem to have a very strong chemistry, from what I've seen in interviews, so if the writers do their jobs properly, I don't see this suffering from the old 'first season blues'. Remember, they're not trying to put together a 26 episode season. They're concentrating on 15 good episodes, and they're clearly taking their time on it.
Regarding the acting, I am years behind on The Walking Dead, so haven't seen Discovery's lead, Sonequa Martin-Green, in action, but from what I'm reading, she's a highly regarded actor. I can't really speak to the other actors involved.
Obviously, I can't predict the future, but I live in hope.